Heat could kill more people than the cold in Scotland

For most of its history Scotland has been a nation where people died from the cold.
Yet as extreme weather events become more frequent, scientists are warning that heat could be an even bigger threat than the winter chill.
Earlier this summer Public Health Scotland, which monitors the nation’s wellbeing, warned that heat casualty numbers may rise north of the border by 200 every year by 2050. A study published in the journal Nature Medicine this week found that hot weather aggravated by carbon pollution killed 50,000 people in Europe last year.
The authorities in England recorded 3,000 excess deaths in the 2022 heatwave and an estimated 62,000 people died from heat-related causes last year in Europe. Now Kai Wan, a researcher based until recently at Edinburgh University, has warned against Scots’ complacency.
Scotland, she said, must be prepared to adapt for potentially deadly heat. The country will lose fewer people to the cold as winters warm. Scotland recorded its mildest January on record in 2024. But this gain will be more than outweighed by summer fatalities, especially for those who already have health problems.
Wan wrote: “The increases in heat-related mortalities are estimated to outweigh cold reductions in the future under all greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. In the future, the combined heat and cold-related mortality is lowest under the scenario of low GHG emission with a sustainable development pathway and highest under the scenario of high-emission, fossil-fuelled socioeconomic development pathway: This reflects the substantial health benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions.
“This thesis reveals that heat will become an important health determinant in Scotland under the climate change and socio-economic scenarios investigated, underscoring the need for heat-health governance and more ambitious climate adaptation and mitigation measures.”
A man in his fifties and his son were this week treated for heat exhaustion while walking in the hills of southern Scotland. The UK recorded its hottest day, nearly 35 degrees, of the summer. A yellow heat alert was announced for southern England, while temperatures remained lower north of the border. Scotland recorded its hottest year on record in 2022, when an amber heat alert was sounded.
Wan and other academics have warned that heat deaths are already happening in Scotland and other usually cooler countries, such as Estonia, Finland and Russia. There were an estimated 600-750 extra deaths in Sweden during a heatwave in 2018.
Wan wrote: “Although heat-health impacts have been mostly regarded as a risk in hot areas, it may also be a risk, often an invisible one, in areas that have a historically cool or temperate climate, which may be exacerbated under climate change.”
Wan stressed that Scotland, especially Glasgow, already had a higher mortality rate and underlying health vulnerabilities. She warned that many Scots saw warmer summers as a positive, but Scottish homes were often not suitable for such weather and adaptions may be required.
She concluded: “As the climate continues warming, rather than focusing on the external, and thus uncontrollable factor [the temperature], it is also crucial to focus on adaptation and the underlying vulnerabilities which would offer a more tangible framework for structuring the governance of temperature-related health concerns in populations.”
Jo Farrow, a forecaster for Netweather, said: “There can be a perception that Scotland is cold and wet and does not need to worry about high temperatures. However, as our climate warms, recently we have seen drought concerns. Multiple areas of Scotland were only one step away from the highest level of alert for water scarcity in October 2021. In July 2022 there was a UK-wide heatwave summer and that is when Scotland saw the new highest temperature on record, which was 34.8 degrees celsius, in the Scottish Borders.
“People living with certain conditions need to be aware that heat can add an extra layer of stress to their health risks and plan to look after themselves during these extreme weather events. Often when the heat is on the way people can be excited, but for some it is a worry and a strain.”
Imogen Dow, head of campaigns for Friends of the Earth Scotland, said the study highlighted the need to bring down climate pollution and try to prevent further extreme weather and rising temperatures.
“The Scottish government should be investing more time and resources to adapting to the foreseeable climate changes that are already on their way. The most vulnerable people must be protected, and healthcare workers given the tools and training they need to save lives. Improved building standards and more green infrastructure will help reduce the heat in our towns and cities.”
A Scottish government spokesman said: “We are already taking action, for instance Scottish building regulations now include measures to address overheating in new homes. We are working with Public Health Scotland and other partners on a range of actions, including developing a surveillance system and considering adverse weather-health alerting systems. We are also working with businesses, the public and third sectors to respond to the impacts of climate change.”